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“We have made progress, such as increasing the direct tax to 15% and including the activity in the Selective Tax. Those benefiting from social programmes and those who joined the Desenrola programme were also prohibited from betting.”

He also pointed to the self-exclusion mechanism adopted by the government.

“The debate about prohibition will remain open in the country for the next few years,” he said. “It will be an institutional debate between the Supreme Court, Congress and the executive branch.

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The Gambling Commission’s industry activity report for the financial year April 2025 to March 2026, has reported an increase of 4.4% in GGY across all channels, to £17.5 billion.

The growth, driven predominantly by remote (online) gambling activities, contrasts with a decline in physical gambling premises, highlighting shifting consumer preferences and market dynamics.

When excluding all reported lottery activity, GGY increased to £13.2 billion, up 4.7% year-on-year.

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Commercial sports betting generated just under $17 billion in nationwide revenue in 2025, which is why Davenport asserts that the “stakes of this case are exceptionally high”. Kalshi and Polymarket alone posted more than $45 billion in trading volume, which is similar but not identical to betting revenue, in August. That was a 15% decline from July, although that drop is attributed to the conclusion of the Fifa World Cup tournament that month per Yahoo! Finance.

The American Gaming Association estimates that the exchanges have siphoned more than $1.3 billion in would-be tax revenue from states. One of the AGA’s primary spokespeople pin its fight against prediction markets is former New Jersey governor Chris Christie, who championed the PASPA case to the Supreme Court.

As with PASPA, this matter revolves heavily around federalism versus states’ rights. Traditional sports betting is governed by individual state regulators with varying laws and regulations. Federal derivatives are regulated by the CFTC, which has fully embraced prediction markets under US President Donald Trump after rejecting them in previous administrations.