Gerards Gambit

How to play Gerards Gambit

A sold-out crowd of 6,000 attended the first day of racing at the rebuilt Long Island track, wagering almost $14 million on a nine-race card headlined by the $1 million Jockey Club Gold Cup.

Japanese star Forever Young won the feature race, while all-sources wagering for the day totaled $13,997,422, according to BloodHorse.

The new Belmont is part of a major restructuring of the New York Racing Association’s operations, with Belmont replacing Aqueduct as the year-round home of downstate thoroughbred racing.

How to play Gerards Gambit

Through July, the Las Vegas Convention & Visitors Authority (LVCVA) reported that visitor volume has rebounded only 0.5%. 2026 followed a difficult 2025, where visitation crashed 7.5%.

Far fewer travelers are arriving in the casino town by air this year. Harry Reid International Airport reported 30.2 million passengers through July—a 6.9% drop from the same period in 2025—with international traffic down nearly 9%.

The LVCVA and Harry Reid International Airport have not yet released their August reports. Truist Securities analyst Barry Jonas isn’t expecting a major rally.

How to play Gerards Gambit

“We expect new products such as KPI markets, which allow users to trade a single corporate metric, such as production, deliveries, or subscriber growth, rather than the stock price itself,” observe the analysts. “Further, perp futures are expanding from crypto to commodities and single stock perps.”

Some exchange operators already filed plans to introduce KPI-linked event contracts. Those derivatives would be tied to metrics such as corporate earnings or, in more nuanced cases, Apple iPhone shipments or Tesla deliveries — just two examples — in a given quarter.

While sports event contracts remain the headline-grabbers for prediction market operators, there’s evidence that other categories are experiencing growth. As Bernstein points out, cryptocurrency event contracts account for at least 20% of the turnover on the two largest prediction markets.